The Prediction Markets

Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

April 30, 2027 34%

Next is December 31, 2026 at 13%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
April 30, 2027
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 30, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$442
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • April 30, 2027
  • December 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by...?". April 30, 2027 leads at 34%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 13%. $2K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any live, in-person demonstration or event held by Tesla, a version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present performs any maneuver in which the vehicle is in motion and its cold gas thrusters, fan/suction system, or other similar onboard propulsion or ground-sealing system are activated and in use, in any capacity, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The vehicle does not need to become airborne, reach any particular speed, or achieve any specific outcome for this market to resolve "Yes" — any live use of the cold gas thrusters, fan/suction system, or similar system while the car is moving (e.g., to jump, spin, hover, lift, drift, or otherwise maneuver) qualifies, regardless of how minor or brief. The primary resolution source for this market will be video of the qualifying event, including any official Tesla livestream. Official Tesla statements or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market, provided they establish that a live demonstration met the conditions above.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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