The Prediction Markets

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above ___ end of October?

Closes
Oct 30, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

310 97.4%

Next is 320 at 96.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
310
97.4%
Polymarket 97.4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
310
Last price
97.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
95.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
320
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
320
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
330
95.1%
Polymarket 95.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
330
Last price
95.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
340
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
340
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
350
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
350
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$972
Trade this on Polymarket
360
75%
Polymarket 75%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
360
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$905
Trade this on Polymarket
370
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
370
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
380
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
380
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
390
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
390
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
400
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
400
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
410
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
410
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
420
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
420
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
430
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
430
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 310
  • 320
  • 330

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above ___ end of October?". 310 leads at 97.4%. Next is 320 at 96.5%. $5K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets