The Prediction Markets

Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 49.1%

The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 47%), a 8.5-point gap.

Yes 49.1%No 50.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
49.1%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 47%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 50¢ and selling on Polymarket at 53¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 7 min old: Yes asks 50¢ on Kalshi and bids 53¢ on Polymarket (300 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 7, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: formula1.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, Reuters, Formula 1
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 7, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Live prices for Yes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover Yes and No across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?". Yes leads at 49.1%. $29K has traded across 1 outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

The 2026 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is currently scheduled to take place at Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on December 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix race takes place in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, during the 2026 Formula One World Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such race has taken place in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No", regardless of whether the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship has been completed. A postponement, rescheduling or change of start time will not affect this market's resolution, so long as the race takes place in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi by March 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. A change of circuit within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi will not affect this market's resolution. A race held in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi as part of the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship will count regardless of the official name of the event. If the race is cancelled, or relocated to a venue outside the Emirate of Abu Dhabi (including elsewhere in the United Arab Emirates), this market will resolve to "No". The race will be considered to have taken place if the Grand Prix race officially starts, regardless of whether the full scheduled race distance is completed or full points are awarded. Practice, Qualifying and Sprint sessions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 and the FIA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets