The Prediction Markets

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

Closes
Jan 15, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$195K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 7.4% 78%

Next is 7.50% at 76.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 7.4%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.4%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
7.50%
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.50%
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.22%
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.22%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5%
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.23%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.23%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.25%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.25%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.24%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.24%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.26%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.26%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.6%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.6%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.50%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.50%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 24 more outcomes
Above 7.27%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.27%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.7%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.7%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.25%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.25%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.28%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.28%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.8%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.8%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.29%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.29%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.3%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.30%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.9%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.9%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.31%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.31%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.32%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.32%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.0%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.0%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.00%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.00%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.33%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.33%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.35%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.35%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.34%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.34%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.36%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.36%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
5.90%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.90%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.38%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.38%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.50%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.50%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.37%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.37%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.4%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.40%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.39%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.39%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.41%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.41%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.70%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.70%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: freddiemac.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Freddie Mac

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 7.4%
  • 7.50%
  • Above 7.22%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 7.4% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?". Above 7.4% leads at 78%. Next is 7.50% at 76.5%. $195K has traded across 34 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 15, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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