The Prediction Markets

Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 for the day of July 22?

Closed
Jul 23, 2021
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 23, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: covid.cdc.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 for the day of July 22? ". $38K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 23, 2021.

This is a market on whether the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US will be less than 15,000 for the day of July 22, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. “for the day of July 22, 2021” refers to the data on the CDC table under the 7 day moving average column, on the same row as “Jul 22 2021”. This data can also be found by mousing over the bar on the graph which has “Date: July 22, 2021”, and reading the 7-Day Moving average number in that box. The 7-day moving average for the day of July 22 will be checked at 8:00 PM ET, July 23. If data for the day of July 22 is not accessible on the website at that time, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will check the resolution source every 24 hours until it is available, or for one last time on August 1, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. If data is still unavailable, the market will resolve based on the most recent 7-Day Moving Average prior to July 22. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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