The Prediction Markets

Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 on June 17?

Closed
Jun 17, 2021
Traded
$86K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 17, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: covid.cdc.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 on June 17?". $86K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 17, 2021.

In response to trader inquiry: As of June 18, 2021, at 12:51 AM ET, there has been no data published by the CDC for the date of June 17, 2021. If no data is published for the date of June 17, 2021 at the time of the second check, which will take place on June 18, 2021, at 8:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50 as per the original market rules. This is a market on whether the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US will be less than 15,000 for the day of June 17, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases for the day of June 17, 2021, as displayed on the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). The 7-day moving average will be checked at 8:00 PM ET on June 17, 2021. If the average for the day of June 17 is less than 15,000, the market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” If the website is down at that time or for any reason data for June 17 is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 8:00 PM ET on June 18, 2021) and resolve then. If data for June 17 is still unavailable at that time, the market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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