The Prediction Markets

Will the AAA US average national gas price drop below $4.00 by April 25, 2022?

Closed
Apr 25, 2022
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 25, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gasprices.aaa.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the AAA US average national gas price drop below $4.00 by April 25, 2022?". $27K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 25, 2022.

This market asks whether the average US regular gas price according to the American Automotive Association (AAA) will fall below $4.000 by April 25, 2022. If the average US regular gas price according to AAA is $3.999 or lower (i.e. less than $4.000) on any day between the date of this market's inception April 11 and April 25, 2022 (inclusive) this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg." will be checked at 8 PM ET daily. If the URL for gas prices as determined by AAA changes, the resolution URL will change. If the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, the source will be checked 24 hours later, specifically "Yesterday Avg.", and if still unavailable, another credible source will be used such as https://www.gasbuddy.com/.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets