The Prediction Markets

Will The Queen's Gambit win the Emmy Award for Best Limited Series? 

Closed
Sep 19, 2021
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 19, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: emmys.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will The Queen's Gambit win the Emmy Award for Best Limited Series? ". $29K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 19, 2021.

This is a market on whether The Queen's Gambit produced by Netflix will win the 2021 Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series at the 73rd Primetime Emmy Award, scheduled to take place on Sunday, September 19, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if The Queen's Gambit wins the award for Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series at the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards, or “No” if it does not win the award for this category. If for any reason the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards are delayed or the announcement of a winner is delayed, market resolution will be delayed until a winner for Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series is announced. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards, and if necessary, the Emmy's website (https://www.emmys.com/awards/nominees-winners/2021/outstanding-miniseries). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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