The Prediction Markets

Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?

Closed
Mar 15, 2021
Traded
$1.3M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 15, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: covid.cdc.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?". $1.3M has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 15, 2021.

This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. In response to trader inquiry: If it can be reasonably construed that the resolution source, the CDC, will publish corrected or otherwise revised COVID-19 case numbers, resolution of this market will consider only those revised numbers. In the event of an initial report which counts case numbers as lower than 50,000 but which is later revised (within 48 hours), only the revised numbers will be considered for the resolution of this market. The same applies if the initial case numbers are higher than 50,000 but are later revised (within 48 hours). Accordingly, resolution of this market may be delayed up to 48 hours if revised numbers are expected to be published. Only revisions of case numbers for dates posted by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST will be considered. If initial case numbers for March 14 are not posted prior to March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, those numbers will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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