The Prediction Markets

Will the USA report a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 200k or more before January 1, 2022?

Closed
Jan 8, 2022
Traded
$154K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Jan 8, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: covid.cdc.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the USA report a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 200k or more before January 1, 2022?". $154K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 8, 2022.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States reports a 200,000 or more 7-day COVID-19 case average on or after the date of this market’s inception, December 13 2021, and on or before December 31, 2021. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to "Select a state or territory" and select “United States”, and then scroll to "Data Table for Daily Case Trends" and view the data in the "7-Day Moving Avg" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, to see if the criteria for “Yes” are met. The final check will be on January 8, 2022, 8 PM ET, checking the 7-day average on all days from the creation of this market to December 31, 2021. If the website is down or data is unavailable during the final check, the market will resolve based on the most recent previous check that had data available.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets