The Prediction Markets

Will the Wormhole hacker return 69% or more of the exploited funds by February 9th?

Closed
Feb 9, 2022
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Feb 9, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will the Wormhole hacker return 69% or more of the exploited funds by February 9th?". $36K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Feb 9, 2022.

In Response to Trader inquiry: Wormhole has clarified that 120k wETH was exploited. However, this market will continue to use 64,688 ETH returned as the threshold for resolving the market to “Yes.” On 2/2/2022 Wormhole was exploited for approximately 93,750 ETH, as can be seen here: https://etherscan.io/address/0x629e7da20197a5429d30da36e77d06cdf796b71a#internaltx This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Wormhole hacker returns at least 69% of the exploited funds to Wormhole by February 9, 2022 11:59:59 PM ET, and “No” otherwise.  Any official announcements by Wormhole (https://wormholenetwork.com/, https://twitter.com/wormholecrypto, etc) will be sufficient to resolve this market, as well as transactions from the hacker that return the funds to whichever relevant party or parties as determined by Wormhole. For the purposes of this market, 69% or more of the exploited funds means 64,688 ETH or more. or if other cryptocurrencies/currencies are sent instead, then at the time they were sent if their conversion into ETH was 64,688 ETH or more, it will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes.” Note that if funds are returned to Wormhole in another way, and they confirm, it will count for this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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