The Prediction Markets

Will Trump be impeached?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$4.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 77.5%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 66%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2028
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2027
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Aug 1, 2027
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
June 30, 2027
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jul 1, 2027
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Before Mar 1, 2027
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$403K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Oct 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Yes for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump be impeached?". Yes leads at 77.5%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 66%. $4.6M has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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