The Prediction Markets

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Closes
Jan 20, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$227K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 78.5%

Next is At least 1 at 71%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
78.5%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 1
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
At least 1
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$535
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 20, 2029
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 20, 2029
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2
34%
Kalshi 27%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3
29.5%
Kalshi 13%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4
11.8%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 10
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 10
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • At least 1
  • Before Jan 20, 2029

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Yes for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?". Yes leads at 78.5%. Next is At least 1 at 71%. $227K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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