The Prediction Markets

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$763K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Apr 1, 2027 48%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 28%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$517K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Donald Trump, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
  • Before Dec 1, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Apr 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 48%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 28%. $763K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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