The Prediction Markets

Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
12 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before 2028 50.5%

Next is Before 2029 at 50.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 12 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before 2028
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before 2029
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2029
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
None before 2027
37.6%
Polymarket 37.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 38.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $262 (2.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2027
Last price
37.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
38.2¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$262 (2.62x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Scavino
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Scavino
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Polymarket
Susie Wiles
27.4%
Polymarket 29%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 22.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kristi Noem
26.8%
Polymarket 26.8%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 33.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $295 (2.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
26.8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
33.9¢
Sell Yes
19.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$295 (2.95x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Homan
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Markwayne Mullin
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
21.7%
Polymarket 25%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 11.8%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
12.3¢
Sell Yes
11.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$813 (8.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russell T. Vought
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 23 more outcomes
Kash Patel
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$311K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before 2027
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
11.7%
Polymarket 14%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 4.8%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Howard Lutnick
9.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 0.7%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Miller
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lee Zeldin
7.2%
Polymarket 9%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 1.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Sacks
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Sacks
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Waltz
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before July 2026
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before July 2026
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Kalshi
Russell T. Vought
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell T. Vought
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott Bessent
3.9%
Polymarket 5%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 0.7%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Ratcliffe
3.9%
Polymarket 8%polled, 12 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$698
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Polymarket
Brooke Rollins
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Doug Burgum
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly Loeffler
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Linda McMahon
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jamieson Greer
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Doug Collins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott Turner
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
Sean Duffy
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Wright
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, The New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before 2028
  • Before 2029
  • None before 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before 2028 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?". Before 2028 leads at 50.5%. Next is Before 2029 at 50.5%. $1.6M has traded across 33 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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