The Prediction Markets

Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$442K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Dec 1, 2026 85%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 29.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
29.1%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 6 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$422K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jul 1, 2027
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran, Donald Trump

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Dec 1, 2026
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
  • Before Feb 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Dec 1, 2026 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?". Before Dec 1, 2026 leads at 85%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 29.1%. $442K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump visits the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip. Whether or not Trump enters the Gaza Strip's airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. A visit to any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip, including visits to buffer zones or Israeli-controlled territory within the strip, counts. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, or official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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