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What the markets expect
Before Jan 1, 2027 92%
Next is Before Dec 1, 2026 at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Before Jan 1, 202792%Not listed92%90¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Before Jan 1, 202792%Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
92%
Not listed
92%
90¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $5K
Before Dec 1, 202683%Not listed83%83¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 min ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Before Dec 1, 202683%Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Before Dec 1, 2026
83%
Not listed
83%
83¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Before Dec 1, 2026
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $10K
Japan16%Not listed16%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Japan16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Japan
16%
Not listed
16%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Japan
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Japan
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $49K
Saudi Arabia14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Saudi Arabia14%Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Saudi Arabia
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Saudi Arabia
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Saudi Arabia
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $29K
Germany11%Not listed11%11¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Germany11%Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Germany
11%
Not listed
11%
11¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Germany
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $29K
Norway10%Not listed10%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Norway10%Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Norway
10%
Not listed
10%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Norway
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Norway
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Israel9.2%Not listed9.2%9.1¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Israel9.2%Kalshi 9.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Israel
9.2%
Not listed
9.2%
9.1¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Israel
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Israel
- Last price
- 9.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $55K
December 318.5%8.5%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)December 318.5%Polymarket 8.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
December 31
8.5%
8.5%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
December 31
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- December 31
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $77K
India8%Not listed8%5.3¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)India8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
India
8%
Not listed
8%
5.3¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
India
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- India
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $16K
Italy7.9%Not listed7.9%5.8¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)Italy7.9%Kalshi 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Italy
7.9%
Not listed
7.9%
5.8¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Italy
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 7.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $11K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
North Korea7%Not listed7%7¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)North Korea7%Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
North Korea
7%
Not listed
7%
7¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
North Korea
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- North Korea
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $51K
Vatican City6.7%Not listed6.7%3.3¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)Vatican City6.7%Kalshi 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Vatican City
6.7%
Not listed
6.7%
3.3¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Vatican City
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vatican City
- Last price
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $6K
Venezuela6.3%Not listed6.3%6.3¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)Venezuela6.3%Kalshi 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Venezuela
6.3%
Not listed
6.3%
6.3¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Venezuela
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Venezuela
- Last price
- 6.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $30K
Russia6.2%Not listed6.2%6.2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Russia6.2%Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Russia
6.2%
Not listed
6.2%
6.2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Russia
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Russia
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $23K
Cuba5.5%Not listed5.5%5.5¢ bid, 8.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)Cuba5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Cuba
5.5%
Not listed
5.5%
5.5¢ bid, 8.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Cuba
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cuba
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,136 (11.4x)
- Volume
- $51K
Mexico5.5%Not listed5.5%5.3¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)Mexico5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Mexico
5.5%
Not listed
5.5%
5.3¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Mexico
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mexico
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $13K
Denmark4.5%Not listed4.5%4.5¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)Denmark4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Denmark
4.5%
Not listed
4.5%
4.5¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Denmark
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denmark
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $14K
Pakistan4%Not listed4%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Pakistan4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pakistan
4%
Not listed
4%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pakistan
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pakistan
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $16K
Qatar3.9%Not listed3.9%3.7¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)Qatar3.9%Kalshi 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Qatar
3.9%
Not listed
3.9%
3.7¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Qatar
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Qatar
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $8K
Canada3.8%Not listed3.8%3¢ bid, 3.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)Canada3.8%Kalshi 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Canada
3.8%
Not listed
3.8%
3¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Canada
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Canada
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,632 (26.3x)
- Volume
- $13K
Hungary3.8%Not listed3.8%3.8¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)Hungary3.8%Kalshi 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Hungary
3.8%
Not listed
3.8%
3.8¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Hungary
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hungary
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $14K
Palestine3.5%Not listed3.5%3.5¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)Palestine3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Palestine
3.5%
Not listed
3.5%
3.5¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Palestine
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Palestine
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $10K
Poland2.7%Not listed2.7%2¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Poland2.7%Kalshi 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Poland
2.7%
Not listed
2.7%
2¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Poland
2.7%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Poland
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $7K
Ukraine2.7%Not listed2.7%2.7¢ bid, 4.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)Ukraine2.7%Kalshi 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Ukraine
2.7%
Not listed
2.7%
2.7¢ bid, 4.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Ukraine
2.7%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ukraine
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,439 (24.4x)
- Volume
- $17K
Taiwan1.1%Not listed1.1%1.1¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)Taiwan1.1%Kalshi 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Taiwan
1.1%
Not listed
1.1%
1.1¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Taiwan
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taiwan
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $43K
October 310.6%0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)October 310.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
October 31
0.6%
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
October 31
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- October 31
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $43K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the country, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- Japan
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2027 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?". Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 92%. Next is Before Dec 1, 2026 at 83%. $879K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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