The Prediction Markets

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?

Closed
May 1, 2026
Traded
$544K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
250M
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 4238 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
250M
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
375M
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4238 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
375M
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Polymarket
200M
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4238 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$152K
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4238 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
350M
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4238 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
350M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$114K
Trade this on Polymarket
325M
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4238 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
325M
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 250M
  • 375M
  • 200M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?". 250M last traded at 10.8%. Next is 375M at 0.9%. $544K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before May 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, by May 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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