The Prediction Markets

Will US student loan payments resume by May 2, 2022?

Closed
May 2, 2022
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 2, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: studentaid.gov

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will US student loan payments resume by May 2, 2022?". $27K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 2, 2022.

This market asks whether repayment of federal student loans in the United States of America will resume by May 2, 2022. If federal student loan repayments resume in the US for all federal student loans at any time between March 22, 2022, and May 2, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, "federal student loan repayments resuming" means any one or all of these conditions being issued by the federal government of the United States of America regarding student loans: 1) Loan repayments will be resumed 2) The interest rate will be above 0% 3) Collections on default loans will be resumed The primary resolution source for this market will be https://studentaid.gov/announcements-events/covid-19/payment-pause-zero-interest, however other official information from the government of the United States of America and credible reporting will be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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