The Prediction Markets

Will USDC flip USDT in market cap by August 31?

Closed
Aug 31, 2022
Traded
$94K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 31, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: coingecko.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will USDC flip USDT in market cap by August 31?". $94K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 31, 2022.

This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. This market's timeframe spans from June 22, 2022 to August 31, 2022 (inclusive). If, according to the resolution source, $USDC has a greater market cap than $USDT for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDC is equal to or lower than that of $USDT for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the August 31 market cap data is available. Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps. If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through September 1, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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