The Prediction Markets

Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

165 29.6%

Next is 150 at 23%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

165 29.6%150 23%140 9.2%170 9.2%175 8.2%6 others 20.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
165
29.6%
Polymarket 29%(29.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
165
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
29.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
150
23%
Polymarket 22.5%(23% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
150
Last price
22.5%
Fair, margin removed
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
140
9.2%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
140
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
170
9.2%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
170
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
175
8.2%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
175
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
110
6.5%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
110
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
180
5.2%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
180
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
190
4.1%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
190
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
200
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
200
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Polymarket
130
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
130
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
120
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
120
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: investing.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 165
  • 150
  • 140

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?". 165 leads at 29.6%. Next is 150 at 23%. $62K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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