The Prediction Markets

Will Valve add first CS2 operation by...?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2026 50%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 49.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2026
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30, 2026
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2026
  • June 30, 2027
  • March 31, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Valve add first CS2 operation by...?". December 31, 2026 leads at 50%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 49.5%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve releases an operation to CS2 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series. For the purpose of this market, a "CS2 operation" refers to a major, time-limited content update officially released by Valve for Counter-Strike 2, which may include: -A purchasable Operation Pass (or equivalent) with an upgradable coin, enhanced missions, and exclusive rewards. -A campaign of missions (e.g., weekly or star-based progression) in official matchmaking. -Exclusive new cosmetics (e.g., weapon collections, skins, agents, stickers) primarily tied to the operation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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