The Prediction Markets

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Closes
Feb 28, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$188K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

1.2m 63.6%

Next is 1.3m at 15.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1.2m 63.6%1.3m 15.9%1.4m 8.6%1.5m 8.1%1.7m 2.2%2m 1.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.2m
63.6%
Polymarket 56%(63.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2m
Last price
56%
Fair, margin removed
63.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.3m
15.9%
Polymarket 14%(15.9% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3m
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.4m
8.6%
Polymarket 7.6%(8.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4m
Last price
7.6%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5m
8.1%
Polymarket 7.1%(8.1% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5m
Last price
7.1%
Fair, margin removed
8.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.7m
2.2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.7m
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket
2m
1.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2m
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: opec.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.2m
  • 1.3m
  • 1.4m

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?". 1.2m leads at 63.6%. Next is 1.3m at 15.9%. $188K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 28, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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