The Prediction Markets

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year?

Closed
Dec 15, 2022
Traded
$112K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Dec 15, 2022. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: time.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the 2022 TIME Person of the Year?". $112K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Dec 15, 2022.

"Person of the Year" (called Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999) is an annual issue of the United States news magazine and website "TIME" that features and profiles a person, group, idea, or object that "for better or for worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year". This is a market on who will be named as Person of the Year by TIME magazine for the year 2022. TIME's Person of the Year 2022 is picked by the newspaper's editors and is expected to be announced within the first two weeks of December 2022. If the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Please note, that this market will resolve to "Yes" only if exclusively Volodymyr Zelenskyy is named as the TIME's Person of the Year. If, for example, "Defenders of Kyiv" or "People of Ukraine" or any other group is named as 2022 TIME's Person of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". This market can resolve after the 2022 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason, the 2022 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2023 (11 PM ET), this market will resolve to "No". ---------------------------- Here is a list of the last 10 TIME Persons of the Year: 2021 - Elon Musk 2020 - Joe Biden, Kamala Harris 2019 - Greta Thunberg 2018 - The Guardians and the War on Truth 2017 - The Silence Breakers 2016 - Donald Trump 2015 - Angela Merkel 2014 - The Ebola Fighters 2013 - Pope Francis 2012 - President of the United States 2011 - The Protester Read more about Person of the Year: https://time.com/poy

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets