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What the markets expect
Jannik Sinner 24%
Next is Carlos Alcaraz at 22.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Jannik Sinner24%33%24% fair— bid, 33¢ askpolled, 32s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Jannik Sinner24%Kalshi 33%(24% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Jannik Sinner
24%
33%
24% fair
— bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Jannik Sinner
24%
Kalshi 33%(24% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jannik Sinner
- Last price
- 33%
- Fair, margin removed
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $335
Carlos Alcaraz22.6%31%22.5% fair31¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 32s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Carlos Alcaraz22.6%Kalshi 31%(22.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Carlos Alcaraz
22.6%
31%
22.5% fair
31¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Carlos Alcaraz
22.6%
Kalshi 31%(22.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Last price
- 31%
- Fair, margin removed
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $192
Alexander Zverev10.9%15%10.9% fair6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 32s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Alexander Zverev10.9%Kalshi 15%(10.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Alexander Zverev
10.9%
15%
10.9% fair
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Alexander Zverev
10.9%
Kalshi 15%(10.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexander Zverev
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $229
Novak Djokovic7.3%10%7.3% fair3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 32s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Novak Djokovic7.3%Kalshi 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Novak Djokovic
7.3%
10%
7.3% fair
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Novak Djokovic
7.3%
Kalshi 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Novak Djokovic
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $180
Tommy Paul3.7%5%3.6% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Tommy Paul3.7%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tommy Paul
3.7%
5%
3.6% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tommy Paul
3.7%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tommy Paul
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $56
Ben Shelton2.2%3%2.2% fair3¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 32s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Ben Shelton2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Ben Shelton
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
3¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Ben Shelton
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ben Shelton
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $291
Casper Ruud2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Casper Ruud2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Casper Ruud
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Casper Ruud
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Casper Ruud
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2
Jiri Lehecka2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Jiri Lehecka2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jiri Lehecka
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jiri Lehecka
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jiri Lehecka
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2
Lorenzo Musetti2.2%3%2.2% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lorenzo Musetti2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lorenzo Musetti
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lorenzo Musetti
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2
Alex de Minaur1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Alex de Minaur1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex de Minaur
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alex de Minaur
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex de Minaur
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Alexander Bublik1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Alexander Bublik1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alexander Bublik
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Alexander Bublik
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexander Bublik
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Andrey Rublev1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Andrey Rublev1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Andrey Rublev
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Andrey Rublev
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrey Rublev
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Brandon Nakashima1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Brandon Nakashima1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brandon Nakashima
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brandon Nakashima
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Nakashima
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Flavio Cobolli1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Flavio Cobolli1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Flavio Cobolli
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Flavio Cobolli
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Flavio Cobolli
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Francisco Cerundolo1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Francisco Cerundolo1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Francisco Cerundolo
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Francisco Cerundolo
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Francisco Cerundolo
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Learner Tien1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Learner Tien1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Learner Tien
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Learner Tien
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Learner Tien
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Luciano Darderi1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Luciano Darderi1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Luciano Darderi
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Luciano Darderi
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luciano Darderi
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Valentin Vacherot1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Valentin Vacherot1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Valentin Vacherot
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Valentin Vacherot
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Valentin Vacherot
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Arthur Fils1.5%2%1.5% fair2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 32s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Arthur Fils1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Arthur Fils
1.5%
2%
1.5% fair
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Arthur Fils
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arthur Fils
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $85
Taylor Fritz1.5%2%1.5% fair2¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 32s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Taylor Fritz1.5%Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Taylor Fritz
1.5%
2%
1.5% fair
2¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Taylor Fritz
1.5%
Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Fritz
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $304
Daniil Medvedev0.7%1%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Daniil Medvedev0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Daniil Medvedev
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Daniil Medvedev
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniil Medvedev
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $85
Felix Auger-Aliassime0.7%1%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 32s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Felix Auger-Aliassime0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Felix Auger-Aliassime
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $85
Frances Tiafoe0.7%1%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Frances Tiafoe0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Frances Tiafoe
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Frances Tiafoe
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Frances Tiafoe
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $85
Jakub Mensik0.7%1%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 32s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Jakub Mensik0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jakub Mensik
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jakub Mensik
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jakub Mensik
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $85
Rafael Jodar0.7%1%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 32s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Rafael Jodar0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Rafael Jodar
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Rafael Jodar
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rafael Jodar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $85
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, ATP
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Alexander Zverev
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Wimbledon Men's Singles Winner". Jannik Sinner leads at 24%. Next is Carlos Alcaraz at 22.6%. $2K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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