The Prediction Markets

Winnipeg Mayoral Election

Closes
Oct 29, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Scott Gillingham 88.5%

Next is Mazher Alam at 2.8%. The venues differ most on Mazher Alam (Polymarket 3.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.5-point gap.

Scott Gillingham 88.5%Mazher Alam 2.8%Kevin Klein 2.3%Don Woodstock 1.1%Brad Gross 1%9 others 4.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Scott Gillingham
88.5%
Polymarket 91.5%(87.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 93%(88.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Gillingham
Last price
91.5%
Fair, margin removed
87.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Gillingham
Last price
93%
Fair, margin removed
88.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 90¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 93¢.

Mazher Alam
2.8%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mazher Alam
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mazher Alam
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Kevin Klein
2.3%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Klein
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Klein
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Don Woodstock
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Don Woodstock
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Don Woodstock
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Brad Gross
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Gross
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Vogiatzakis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Vogiatzakis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Tracey Drexler
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tracey Drexler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah ReddenArb
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noah Redden
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Redden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Michael Vogiatzakis
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Vogiatzakis
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christopher Clacio
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Clacio
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Clacio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Show 4 more outcomes
Johnny Calderon
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Johnny Calderon
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Johnny Calderon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Joshua Pagdato
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joshua Pagdato
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joshua Pagdato
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Umar HayatArb
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Umar Hayat
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Umar Hayat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Zachary Uminski
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zachary Uminski
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Umar Hayat on Polymarket at 0.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 1¢ (80 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 29, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Winnipeg
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 29, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Scott Gillingham
  • Mazher Alam
  • Kevin Klein

Live prices for Scott Gillingham

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Winnipeg Mayoral Election". Scott Gillingham leads at 88.5%. Next is Mazher Alam at 2.8%. $42K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

The 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Winnipeg.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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