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What the markets expect
Above 200K 95%
Next is Above 220K at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 200K95%95%91¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 36s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 200K95%Kalshi 95%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 200K
95%
95%
91¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 200K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 200K
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 220K93%93%87¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 36s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 220K93%Kalshi 93%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 220K
93%
93%
87¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 220K
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 220K
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 240K88%88%82¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 36s ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 240K88%Kalshi 88%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 240K
88%
88%
82¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 240K
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 240K
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Above 260K80%80%74¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 36s ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 260K80%Kalshi 80%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 260K
80%
80%
74¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 260K
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 260K
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Above 280K77%77%66¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 36s ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Above 280K77%Kalshi 77%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Above 280K
77%
77%
66¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Above 280K
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 280K
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $818
Above 300K55%55%55¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 36s ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)Above 300K55%Kalshi 55%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Above 300K
55%
55%
55¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Above 300K
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 300K
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $389
Above 320K45%45%45¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 36s ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Above 320K45%Kalshi 45%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 320K
45%
45%
45¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 320K
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 320K
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $690
Above 340K35%35%35¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 36s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Above 340K35%Kalshi 35%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Above 340K
35%
35%
35¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Above 340K
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 340K
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $600
Above 360K27%27%27¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 36s ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Above 360K27%Kalshi 27%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Above 360K
27%
27%
27¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Above 360K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 360K
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $400
Above 400K24%24%13¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 36s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 400K24%Kalshi 24%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 400K
24%
24%
13¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 400K
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 400K
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $877
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
Above 380K21%21%19¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 36s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Above 380K21%Kalshi 21%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Above 380K
21%
21%
19¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Above 380K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 380K
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 420K14%14%8¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 36s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 420K14%Kalshi 14%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 420K
14%
14%
8¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 420K
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 420K
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Above 440K9%9%5¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 36s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Above 440K9%Kalshi 9%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 440K
9%
9%
5¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 440K
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 440K
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Wisconsin Elections Commission
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 200K
- Above 220K
- Above 240K
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin 02 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 200K leads at 95%. Next is Above 220K at 93%. $5K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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