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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Crowley, 1+ pts 70%
Next is Crowley, 4+ pts at 51%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Crowley, 1+ pts70%Not listed70%70¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 5 h ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)Crowley, 1+ pts70%Kalshi 70%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Crowley, 1+ pts
70%
Not listed
70%
70¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Crowley, 1+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $17K
Crowley, 4+ pts51%Not listed51%51¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 5 h ago61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)Crowley, 4+ pts51%Kalshi 51%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Crowley, 4+ pts
51%
Not listed
51%
51¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Crowley, 4+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 4+ pts
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $14K
Crowley, 5+ pts44%Not listed44%44¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 5 h ago50¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Crowley, 5+ pts44%Kalshi 44%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Crowley, 5+ pts
44%
Not listed
44%
44¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
50¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Crowley, 5+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 5+ pts
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
Crowley, 6+ pts37%Not listed37%37¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 5 h ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Crowley, 6+ pts37%Kalshi 37%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Crowley, 6+ pts
37%
Not listed
37%
37¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Crowley, 6+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 6+ pts
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $681
Crowley, 7+ pts31%Not listed31%31¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 5 h ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Crowley, 7+ pts31%Kalshi 31%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Crowley, 7+ pts
31%
Not listed
31%
31¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Crowley, 7+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 7+ pts
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $10K
Crowley 6-9%22.5%22.5%21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Crowley 6-9%22.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Crowley 6-9%
22.5%
22.5%
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Crowley 6-9%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Crowley 6-9%
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $2K
Crowley 3-6%21%21%20¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Crowley 3-6%21%Polymarket 21%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Crowley 3-6%
21%
21%
20¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Crowley 3-6%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Crowley 3-6%
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $4K
Crowley 0-3%16.5%16.5%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Crowley 0-3%16.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Crowley 0-3%
16.5%
16.5%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Crowley 0-3%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Crowley 0-3%
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $4K
Crowley, 10+ pts15%Not listed15%13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 5 h ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Crowley, 10+ pts15%Kalshi 15%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Crowley, 10+ pts
15%
Not listed
15%
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Crowley, 10+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 10+ pts
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $5K
Tiffany, 2+ pts13%Not listed13%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 5 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Tiffany, 2+ pts13%Kalshi 13%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Tiffany, 2+ pts
13%
Not listed
13%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Tiffany, 2+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tiffany, 2+ pts
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $11K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Tiffany 0-3%12.5%12.5%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Tiffany 0-3%12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Tiffany 0-3%
12.5%
12.5%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Tiffany 0-3%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tiffany 0-3%
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $4K
Crowley 9-12%9.5%9.5%9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Crowley 9-12%9.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Crowley 9-12%
9.5%
9.5%
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Crowley 9-12%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Crowley 9-12%
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tiffany, 5+ pts7.3%Not listed7.3%0.6¢ bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, 5 h ago9.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)Tiffany, 5+ pts7.3%Kalshi 7.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Tiffany, 5+ pts
7.3%
Not listed
7.3%
0.6¢ bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
9.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Tiffany, 5+ pts
7.3%
Kalshi 7.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tiffany, 5+ pts
- Last price
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
- Volume
- $13K
Crowley, 13+ pts6%Not listed6%1.8¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 5 h ago8.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)Crowley, 13+ pts6%Kalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Crowley, 13+ pts
6%
Not listed
6%
1.8¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
8.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Crowley, 13+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 13+ pts
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $2K
Tiffany 3-6%5.2%5.2%5.1¢ bid, 5.2¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed5.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)Tiffany 3-6%5.2%Polymarket 5.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Tiffany 3-6%
5.2%
5.2%
5.1¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
5.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Tiffany 3-6%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tiffany 3-6%
- Last price
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,923 (19.2x)
- Volume
- $3K
Crowley 12%+4.4%4.4%2.6¢ bid, 6.2¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed6.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)Crowley 12%+4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Crowley 12%+
4.4%
4.4%
2.6¢ bid, 6.2¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
6.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Crowley 12%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Crowley 12%+
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,613 (16.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
Crowley, 19+ pts3.4%Not listed3.4%0.5¢ bid, 3.4¢ askpolled, 5 h ago3.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)Crowley, 19+ pts3.4%Kalshi 3.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Crowley, 19+ pts
3.4%
Not listed
3.4%
0.5¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
3.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Crowley, 19+ pts
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 19+ pts
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $374
Crowley, 16+ pts1.1%Not listed1.1%1.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 5 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Crowley, 16+ pts1.1%Kalshi 1.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Crowley, 16+ pts
1.1%
Not listed
1.1%
1.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Crowley, 16+ pts
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crowley, 16+ pts
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $386
Tiffany 6-9%0.4%0.4%0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Tiffany 6-9%0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Tiffany 6-9%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Tiffany 6-9%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tiffany 6-9%
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tiffany 9-12%0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Tiffany 9-12%0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tiffany 9-12%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tiffany 9-12%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tiffany 9-12%
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $978
Tiffany 12%+0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 5 h agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Tiffany 12%+0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tiffany 12%+
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tiffany 12%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tiffany 12%+
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Crowley, 1+ pts
- Crowley, 4+ pts
- Crowley, 5+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Crowley, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin Governor margin of victory". Crowley, 1+ pts leads at 70%. Next is Crowley, 4+ pts at 51%. $102K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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