The Prediction Markets

Wisconsin's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Steil, 2+ pts 51%

Next is Berman, 1+ pts at 33%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Steil, 2+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steil, 2+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Kalshi
Berman, 1+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Berman, 1+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Steil, 5+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steil, 5+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Berman, 4+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Berman, 4+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12%+
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steil, 8+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steil, 8+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Kalshi
Steil, 11+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steil, 11+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 6-9%
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Berman, 7+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Berman, 7+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steil, 17+ pts
7.3%
Kalshi 7.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steil, 17+ pts
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Steil, 14+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steil, 14+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Steil, 2+ pts
  • Berman, 1+ pts
  • Steil, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Steil, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin's 1st District margin of victory". Steil, 2+ pts leads at 51%. Next is Berman, 1+ pts at 33%. $23K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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