The Prediction Markets

Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Cooke, 1+ pts 71%

Next is Cooke, 4+ pts at 44%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cooke, 1+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooke, 1+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooke, 4+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooke, 4+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooke, 7+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooke, 7+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $617 (6.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.2¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$617 (6.17x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooke, 10+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooke, 10+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooke, 13+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooke, 13+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12%+
10.6%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Cooke, 16+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooke, 16+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$763
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cooke, 1+ pts
  • Cooke, 4+ pts
  • Cooke, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cooke, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory". Cooke, 1+ pts leads at 71%. Next is Cooke, 4+ pts at 44%. $20K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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