The Prediction Markets

Wisconsin's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Grothman, 2+ pts 91.3%

Next is Grothman, 5+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Grothman, 2+ pts
91.3%
Kalshi 91.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 2+ pts
Last price
91.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92.6¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grothman, 5+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 5+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grothman, 8+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 8+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Grothman, 11+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 11+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Grothman, 14+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 14+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi
Grothman, 17+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 17+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Grothman, 20+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 20+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
19.2%
Polymarket 19.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 21.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $459 (4.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
19.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.8¢
Sell Yes
16.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$459 (4.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Grothman, 23+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 23+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
11.8%
Polymarket 11.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$575 (5.75x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
Grothman, 26+ pts
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grothman, 26+ pts
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Grothman, 2+ pts
  • Grothman, 5+ pts
  • Grothman, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Grothman, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Wisconsin's 6th District margin of victory". Grothman, 2+ pts leads at 91.3%. Next is Grothman, 5+ pts at 85%. $20K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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