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What the markets expect
Mackenzie Dern 99%
Next is Alexia Thainara at 15.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Mackenzie Dern99%99%60¢ bid, — askpolled, 18s agoNo askMackenzie Dern99%Kalshi 99%polled, 18s ago
Mackenzie Dern
99%
99%
60¢ bid, — ask
polled, 18s ago
No ask
Mackenzie Dern
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mackenzie Dern
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- Volume
- $2K
Alexia Thainara15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Alexia Thainara15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Alexia Thainara
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Alexia Thainara
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexia Thainara
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Denise Gomes15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Denise Gomes15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Denise Gomes
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Denise Gomes
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denise Gomes
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Fatima Kline15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Fatima Kline15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Fatima Kline
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Fatima Kline
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fatima Kline
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Gillian Robertson15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Gillian Robertson15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Gillian Robertson
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Gillian Robertson
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gillian Robertson
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Jéssica Andrade15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Jéssica Andrade15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Jéssica Andrade
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Jéssica Andrade
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jéssica Andrade
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Loopy Godinez15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Loopy Godinez15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Loopy Godinez
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Loopy Godinez
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Loopy Godinez
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Tabatha Ricci15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Tabatha Ricci15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Tabatha Ricci
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Tabatha Ricci
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tabatha Ricci
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Tatiana Suarez15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Tatiana Suarez15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Tatiana Suarez
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Tatiana Suarez
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tatiana Suarez
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Virna Jandiroba15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Virna Jandiroba15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Virna Jandiroba
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Virna Jandiroba
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Virna Jandiroba
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Yan Xiaonan15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Yan Xiaonan15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Yan Xiaonan
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Yan Xiaonan
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yan Xiaonan
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Zhang Weili15.5%15.5%— bid, 31¢ askpolled, 18s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Zhang Weili15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Zhang Weili
15.5%
15.5%
— bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 18s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Zhang Weili
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zhang Weili
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Mackenzie Dern
- Alexia Thainara
- Denise Gomes
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Women's Strawweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?". Mackenzie Dern leads at 99%. Next is Alexia Thainara at 15.5%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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