The Prediction Markets

World Cup 2030: Location of Final

Closes
Jul 22, 2030, in 46 months
Traded
$305K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Other / Unconfirmed by 2028 50.5%

Next is Madrid at 28.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Other / Unconfirmed by 2028 50.5%Madrid 28.8%Moroccan city 20%Barcelona 0.5%Portuguese city 0.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Other / Unconfirmed by 2028
50.5%
Polymarket 45.5%(50.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Other / Unconfirmed by 2028
Last price
45.5%
Fair, margin removed
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$193K
Trade this on Polymarket
Madrid
28.8%
Polymarket 26%(28.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Madrid
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
28.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moroccan city
20%
Polymarket 18%(20% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moroccan city
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.5¢
Sell Yes
17.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$541 (5.41x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Barcelona
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barcelona
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Portuguese city
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portuguese city
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Other / Unconfirmed by 2028
  • Madrid
  • Moroccan city

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "World Cup 2030: Location of Final". Other / Unconfirmed by 2028 leads at 50.5%. Next is Madrid at 28.8%. $305K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 22, 2030.

This market will resolve according to the city officially announced by FIFA as the host of the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for July 21, 2030. A qualifying announcement means an official confirmation by FIFA of the stadium or city selected to host the final. Bid proposals, venue lists, recommendations by member federations or bid committees, and media speculation about FIFA's decision will not qualify on their own. If FIFA announces a stadium rather than a city, this market will resolve to the city FIFA designates as that stadium's host city in its official 2030 FIFA World Cup materials. A qualifying announcement before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of any subsequent change to the venue or to the scheduled date of the final. If no host city for the final is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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