The Prediction Markets

World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Denmark 98%

Next is Finland at 96.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Denmark
98%
Polymarket 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denmark
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
96.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Finland
96.6%
Polymarket 96.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Finland
Last price
96.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Iceland
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iceland
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
94.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Polymarket
Costa Rica
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Costa Rica
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sweden
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sweden
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Norway
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Norway
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Netherlands
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luxembourg
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luxembourg
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Switzerland
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: worldhappiness.report

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • Iceland

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "World Happiness Report 2027: Top 5 countries". Denmark leads at 98%. Next is Finland at 96.6%. $19K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country finishes in the top 5 of the World Happiness Report 2027 ranking of countries by life evaluations (in the World Happiness Report 2026, this ranking was published as "Figure 2.1: Country rankings by life evaluations. Gallup World Poll (2023–2025)"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The World Happiness Report 2027 is expected to be published in March 2027. Countries will be ranked according to their published rank in the World Happiness Report 2027. If two or more countries share the same published rank, they will be ranked by their life evaluation score (the average Cantril ladder score) as published in the report, with higher scores ranking higher. If they remain tied, they will be ranked in alphabetical order of their English names. This market will resolve to "Yes" for each country that occupies one of the top 5 places after applying this ranking. If no World Happiness Report 2027 ranking is published by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Happiness Report (https://worldhappiness.report/); a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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