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What the markets expect
Asador Etxebarri 79%
Next is Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Asador Etxebarri79%79%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Asador Etxebarri79%Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Asador Etxebarri
79%
79%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Asador Etxebarri
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Asador Etxebarri
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $829
Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler79%79%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler79%Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler
79%
79%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $942
Khufu's79%79%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Khufu's79%Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Khufu's
79%
79%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Khufu's
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Khufu's
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kjolle69%69%— bid, 80¢ askpolled, 43s ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Kjolle69%Kalshi 69%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kjolle
69%
69%
— bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kjolle
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kjolle
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $1K
Diverxo12%12%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Diverxo12%Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Diverxo
12%
12%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Diverxo
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Diverxo
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Alchemist9%9%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Alchemist9%Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Alchemist
9%
9%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Alchemist
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alchemist
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $1K
Quintonil9%9%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Quintonil9%Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Quintonil
9%
9%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Quintonil
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quintonil
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $1K
Gaggan7%7%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Gaggan7%Kalshi 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Gaggan
7%
7%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Gaggan
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gaggan
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $1K
Atomix5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Atomix5%Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Atomix
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Atomix
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atomix
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Wing5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 43s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Wing5%Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Wing
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Wing
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wing
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $800
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
Don Julio4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Don Julio4%Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Don Julio
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Don Julio
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Don Julio
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Nusara4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Nusara4%Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Nusara
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Nusara
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nusara
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $800
Smyth3%3%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 43s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Smyth3%Kalshi 3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Smyth
3%
3%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Smyth
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Smyth
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $800
Boragó2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Boragó2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Boragó
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Boragó
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boragó
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
El Chato2%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)El Chato2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
El Chato
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
El Chato
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- El Chato
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Elkano2%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Elkano2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Elkano
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Elkano
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elkano
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $900
Ikoyi2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Ikoyi2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ikoyi
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ikoyi
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ikoyi
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Lido 842%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Lido 842%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Lido 84
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Lido 84
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lido 84
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Mingles2%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Mingles2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Mingles
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Mingles
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mingles
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Odette2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Odette2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Odette
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Odette
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Odette
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Plénitude2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Plénitude2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Plénitude
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Plénitude
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Plénitude
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Potong2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Potong2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Potong
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Potong
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Potong
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $800
Reale2%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Reale2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Reale
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Reale
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Reale
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Sézanne2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Sézanne2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Sézanne
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Sézanne
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sézanne
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Sorn2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Sorn2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Sorn
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Sorn
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sorn
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $800
Sühring2%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Sühring2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Sühring
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Sühring
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sühring
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Table by Bruno Verjus2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 43s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Table by Bruno Verjus2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Table by Bruno Verjus
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Table by Bruno Verjus
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Table by Bruno Verjus
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $800
The Chairman2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 43s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)The Chairman2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
The Chairman
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
The Chairman
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Chairman
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $800
Trèsind Studio2%2%— bid, 79¢ askpolled, 43s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Trèsind Studio2%Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Trèsind Studio
2%
2%
— bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Trèsind Studio
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trèsind Studio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $800
Narisawa1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 43s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Narisawa1%Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Narisawa
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 43s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Narisawa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Narisawa
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $987
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The 50
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Asador Etxebarri
- Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler
- Khufu's
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "World's best restaurant in 2026?". Asador Etxebarri leads at 79%. Next is Atelier Moessmer Norbert Niederkofler at 79%. $32K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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