The Prediction Markets

WTA Tennis: Osaka, Japan Winner

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ann Li 38.5%

Next is Katie Boulter at 23.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Ann Li 38.5%Katie Boulter 23.5%Katerina Siniakova 21.1%Ashlyn Krueger 16.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ann Li
38.5%
Polymarket 32%(38.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ann Li
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
38.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Boulter
23.5%
Polymarket 19.5%(23.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Boulter
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Katerina Siniakova
21.1%
Polymarket 17.5%(21.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katerina Siniakova
Last price
17.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Ashlyn Krueger
16.9%
Polymarket 14%(16.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ashlyn Krueger
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
16.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ann Li
  • Katie Boulter
  • Katerina Siniakova

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "WTA Tennis: Osaka, Japan Winner". Ann Li leads at 38.5%. Next is Katie Boulter at 23.5%. $2K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

The 2026 Osaka, Japan tennis tournament is scheduled for October 17–25, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Osaka, Japan Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Osaka, Japan Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If a player who is not listed wins the 2026 Osaka, Japan Women’s Singles Tournament, this market will resolve to "Other". If the 2026 Osaka, Japan Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from WTA (https://www.wtatennis.com/scores); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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