The Prediction Markets

WTI price at year end?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$156K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

75 or above 85%

Next is 80 or above at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
75 or above
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
75 or above
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
80 or above
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
80 or above
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
85 or above
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
85 or above
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
90 or above
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
90 or above
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
95 or above
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
95 or above
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
100 or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
100 or above
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
105 or above
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
105 or above
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
110 or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
110 or above
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
115 or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
115 or above
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
120 or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
120 or above
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
125 or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
125 or above
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ICE

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 75 or above
  • 80 or above
  • 85 or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "WTI price at year end?". 75 or above leads at 85%. Next is 80 or above at 79%. $156K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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