The Prediction Markets

X-Men: Cast

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$78K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lady Gaga 60%

Next is Drew Starkey at 50.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Lady Gaga
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lady Gaga
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Drew Starkey
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew Starkey
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Stewart
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Stewart
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
James McAvoy
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
James McAvoy
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ian McKellen
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ian McKellen
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Plemons
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelsey Grammer
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 29s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Kelsey Grammer
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris Dickinson
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 29s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Harris Dickinson
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
3¢
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
Hunter Schafer
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Schafer
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 19 more outcomes
Glen Powell
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 29s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Glen Powell
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
10¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacob Elordi
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Elordi
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$978
Trade this on Kalshi
Colman Domingo
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Evan Peters
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evan Peters
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Melton
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Keery
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 29s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Keery
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicholas Hoult
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicholas Hoult
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul Mescal
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Mescal
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Kalshi
Sophie Turner
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sophie Turner
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hugh Jackman
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hugh Jackman
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denzel Washington
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denzel Washington
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Kalshi
Margaret Qualley
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Radcliffe
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Radcliffe
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Butler
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Butler
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayo Edebiri
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayo Edebiri
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Julia Butters
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julia Butters
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$656
Trade this on Kalshi
Tye Sheridan
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tye Sheridan
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$957
Trade this on Kalshi
Will Will Poulter be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Will Will Poulter be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Fassbender
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lady Gaga
  • Drew Starkey
  • Patrick Stewart

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "X-Men: Cast". Lady Gaga leads at 60%. Next is Drew Starkey at 50.5%. $78K has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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