Market comparison

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

2 venues · 36 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $1.3M reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $56K reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for 10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
4.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.3% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.4% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.5% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.6% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 4.8% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
4.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% 4.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
4.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 59.0% 4.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.0% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 78.0% 5.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.1% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 42.0% 5.10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.1% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	46.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 46.0% 5.1% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.2% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0% 5.20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.3% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 12.0% 5.30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 33.0% 5.4% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.40% · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 2.1% Bid 1.9% · Ask 2.2% 5.40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.1% Bid 14.0% · Ask 14.2% 5.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.2% · Ask 100.0% 5.50% · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 4.3% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.7% 5.50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 49.0% 5.5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.8% Bid 11.7% · Ask 12.0% 5.7% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0% 5.70% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.15% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 46.0% 5.15% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.25% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0% 5.25% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.45% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.55% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.60% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.60% · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.65% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% 5.65% · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 3.7% Bid 2.7% · Ask 4.7% 5.65% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.75% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0% 5.75% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
5.80% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.1% Bid 22.2% · Ask 23.9% 5.80% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5.90% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 17.0% 5.90% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
5% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 66.0% 5% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—
6.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.3% Bid 6.0% · Ask 6.6% 6.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
6.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 1.8% · Ask 8.2% 6.00% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
6% or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 6% or above Open Kalshi ↗	—

4.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.3% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.4% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.5% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.6% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

4.8% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

4.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

4.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

4.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

44.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 59.0%

4.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.0% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 78.0%

5.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.1% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 42.0%

5.10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.1% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 46.0%

5.1% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.2% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0%

5.20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.3% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 12.0%

5.30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 33.0%

5.4%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.40% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

2.1%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 2.2%

5.40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.1%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 14.2%

5.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.2% · Ask 100.0%

5.50% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

4.3%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.7%

5.50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 49.0%

5.5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.8%

Bid 11.7% · Ask 12.0%

5.7%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

37.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0%

5.70%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.15% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 46.0%

5.15% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.25% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0%

5.25% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.45% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.55% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.60%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.60% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.65%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

5.65% · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

3.7%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 4.7%

5.65%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.75% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

5.75% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

5.80%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.1%

Bid 22.2% · Ask 23.9%

5.80%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5.90%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 17.0%

5.90%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

5% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 66.0%

5% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 6.6%

6.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

6.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 1.8% · Ask 8.2%

6.00%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

6% or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

6% or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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