Market comparison

2026 Louisville Mayoral Election Winner

2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $8K reported volume

Observed 6m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for 2026 Louisville Mayoral Election Winner
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Craig Greenberg Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	92.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 94.0% Craig Greenberg Open Kalshi ↗	93.5% Bid 92.0% · Ask 95.0% Craig Greenberg Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Shameka Parrish-Wright Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Shameka Parrish-Wright Open Kalshi ↗	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0% Shameka Parrish-Wright Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp