The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

2027 NBA Draft: 1st Overall Pick

2 venues · 83 outcome rows · 15 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

15 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 57s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jul 8, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

110 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 57s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jul 9, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Polymarket resolves all listed players to No (and Other to Yes) if the draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by July 8, 2027 11:59 PM ET; Kalshi rules give no such fallback or deadline text.
  • Polymarket names official NBA information (live broadcast) as primary source, with credible reporting as an alternative; Kalshi rules name no explicit source and refer to 'Pro Basketball Draft' / 'Governing League'.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome for unlisted players; Kalshi lists only the 15 players, with no Other outcome listed.
  • Kalshi rules do not specify handling of draft cancellation or postponement, so the treatment of a cancelled or delayed draft may differ from Polymarket's.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Amari Allen

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Amari Allen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

34.8%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 69.5%

Amari Allen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 32.8 pp

Baba Oladotun

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Baba Oladotun

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 9.0%

Baba Oladotun

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Brandon McCoy

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Brandon McCoy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.6%

Brandon McCoy

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

Braylon Mullins

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Braylon Mullins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

37.6%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 75.1%

Braylon Mullins

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 32.6 pp

Bruce Branch III

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Bruce Branch III

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.2%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 10.0%

Bruce Branch III

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.8 pp

Caleb Holt

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 15.0%

Caleb Holt

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 21.7%

Caleb Holt

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Cameron Williams

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Cameron Williams

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.9%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 11.4%

Cameron Williams

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Colben Landrew

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Colben Landrew

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 16.5%

Colben Landrew

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Dylan Mingo

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Dylan Mingo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.7%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 14.4%

Dylan Mingo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.7 pp

Hugo Yimga-Moukouri

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Hugo Yimga-Moukouri

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

23.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 47.7%

Hugo Yimga-Moukouri

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 19.9 pp

Jordan Smith Jr.

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Jordan Smith Jr.

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 21.3%

Jordan Smith Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Motiejus Krivas

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Motiejus Krivas

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.9%

Motiejus Krivas

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Patrick Ngongba II

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Patrick Ngongba II

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

9.6%

Bid 9.5% · Ask 9.6%

Patrick Ngongba II

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.6 pp

Thomas Haugh

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Thomas Haugh

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.9%

Bid 11.4% · Ask 16.4%

Thomas Haugh

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.9 pp

Tyran Stokes

Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 49.0%

Tyran Stokes

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

36.6%

Bid 12.3% · Ask 61.0%

Tyran Stokes

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 12.3 pp

Player AA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AG · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AH

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AH · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AI · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AJ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AJ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AK

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AK · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AL

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AL · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AM · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AN · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AO

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AO · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AP · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AQ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AQ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AR

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AR · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AS

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AS · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AT

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AT · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AU

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AU · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AV

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AV · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AW

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AW · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AX

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AX · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AY

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AY · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player AZ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player AZ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BG · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BH

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BH · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BI · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BJ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BJ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BK

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BK · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BL

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BL · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BM · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BN · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BO

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BO · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BP · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BQ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BQ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BR

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BR · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BS

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BS · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BT

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BT · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BU

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BU · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BV

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BV · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BW

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BW · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BX

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BX · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BY

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BY · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player BZ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player BZ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CG · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CH

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CH · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CI · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CJ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CJ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CK

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CK · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CL

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CL · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CM · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CN · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CO

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CO · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Player CP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Player CP · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.