Market comparison
2027 NBA Draft: 1st Overall Pick
2 venues · 83 outcome rows · 15 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗15 outcomes · $10K reported volume
Observed 57s ago
Recorded venue end date: Jul 8, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗110 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 57s ago
Recorded venue end date: Jul 9, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Polymarket resolves all listed players to No (and Other to Yes) if the draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by July 8, 2027 11:59 PM ET; Kalshi rules give no such fallback or deadline text.
- Polymarket names official NBA information (live broadcast) as primary source, with credible reporting as an alternative; Kalshi rules name no explicit source and refer to 'Pro Basketball Draft' / 'Governing League'.
- Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome for unlisted players; Kalshi lists only the 15 players, with no Other outcome listed.
- Kalshi rules do not specify handling of draft cancellation or postponement, so the treatment of a cancelled or delayed draft may differ from Polymarket's.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Amari Allen Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 32.8 pp | ||
Baba Oladotun Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
Brandon McCoy Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.8 pp | ||
Braylon Mullins Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 32.6 pp | ||
Bruce Branch III Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 6.8 pp | ||
Caleb Holt Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.1 pp | ||
Cameron Williams Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
Colben Landrew Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.5 pp | ||
Dylan Mingo Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.7 pp | ||
Hugo Yimga-Moukouri Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 19.9 pp | ||
Jordan Smith Jr. Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.1 pp | ||
Motiejus Krivas Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.4 pp | ||
Patrick Ngongba II Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.6 pp | ||
Thomas Haugh Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 5.9 pp | ||
Tyran Stokes Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 12.3 pp | ||
Player AA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AB Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AC Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AD Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AE Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AF Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AG Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AH Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AJ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AK Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AL Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AM Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AN Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AO Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AP Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AQ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AR Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AS Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AT Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AU Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AV Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AW Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AX Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AY Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player AZ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BB Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BC Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BD Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BE Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BF Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BG Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BH Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BJ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BK Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BL Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BM Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BN Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BO Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BP Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BQ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BR Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BS Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BT Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BU Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BV Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BW Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BX Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BY Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player BZ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CB Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CC Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CD Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CE Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CF Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CG Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CH Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CJ Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CK Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CL Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CM Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CN Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CO Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Player CP Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Amari Allen
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 32.8 pp
Baba Oladotun
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.7 pp
Brandon McCoy
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.8 pp
Braylon Mullins
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 32.6 pp
Bruce Branch III
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 6.8 pp
Caleb Holt
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.1 pp
Cameron Williams
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
Colben Landrew
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.5 pp
Dylan Mingo
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.7 pp
Hugo Yimga-Moukouri
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 19.9 pp
Jordan Smith Jr.
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.1 pp
Motiejus Krivas
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.4 pp
Patrick Ngongba II
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.6 pp
Thomas Haugh
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.9 pp
Tyran Stokes
Partial parity · AI-reviewedPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 12.3 pp
Player AA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AB
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AC
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AD
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AE
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AF
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AG
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AH
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AJ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AK
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AL
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AM
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AN
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AO
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AP
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AQ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AR
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AS
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AT
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AU
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AV
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AW
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AX
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AY
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player AZ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BB
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BC
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BD
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BE
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BF
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BG
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BH
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BJ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BK
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BL
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BM
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BN
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BO
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BP
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BQ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BR
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BS
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BT
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BU
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BV
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BW
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BX
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BY
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player BZ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CB
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CC
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CD
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CE
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CF
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CG
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CH
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CJ
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CK
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CL
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CM
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CN
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CO
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Player CP
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.