The Prediction Markets

2027 NBA Draft: 1st Overall Pick

Closes
Jul 9, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 d ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Tyran Stokes 35.6%

Next is Caleb Holt at 7.4%. The venues differ most on Jordan Smith Jr. (Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 4%), a 7.5-point gap.

Tyran Stokes 35.6%Caleb Holt 7.4%Thomas Haugh 7%Bruce Branch III 6.8%Patrick Ngongba II 6%10 others 37.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 26 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tyran Stokes
35.6%
Polymarket 43.4%(28.5% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 43%(38.6% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 44.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $224 (2.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyran Stokes
Last price
43.4%
Fair, margin removed
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
44.7¢
Sell Yes
42.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$224 (2.24x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyran Stokes
Last price
43%
Fair, margin removed
38.6%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Caleb Holt
7.4%
Polymarket 12.8%(8.4% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 8%(7.2% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Holt
Last price
12.8%
Fair, margin removed
8.4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
25.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$398 (3.98x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Holt
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Thomas Haugh
7%
Polymarket 10.1%(6.6% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 8%(7.2% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Haugh
Last price
10.1%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Haugh
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bruce Branch III
6.8%
Polymarket 5.2%(3.4% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 12%(10.8% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruce Branch III
Last price
5.2%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruce Branch III
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Patrick Ngongba II
6%
Polymarket 11.8%(7.7% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Ngongba II
Last price
11.8%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Ngongba II
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Cameron Williams
5%
Polymarket 6.1%(4% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Williams
Last price
6.1%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Williams
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Braylon Mullins
4.7%
Polymarket 7.7%(5% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 5%(4.5% fair)polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Braylon Mullins
Last price
7.7%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Braylon Mullins
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jordan Smith Jr.
4.5%
Polymarket 11.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Smith Jr.
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
22.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$442 (4.42x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Smith Jr.
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Hugo Yimga-Moukouri
4.1%
Polymarket 7%(4.6% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hugo Yimga-Moukouri
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hugo Yimga-Moukouri
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Colben Landrew
3.9%
Polymarket 6.4%(4.2% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colben Landrew
Last price
6.4%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colben Landrew
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$817
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 5 more outcomes
Baba Oladotun
3.3%
Polymarket 4.6%(3% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baba Oladotun
Last price
4.6%
Fair, margin removed
3%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baba Oladotun
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dylan Mingo
3.3%
Polymarket 7.6%(5% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dylan Mingo
Last price
7.6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Mingo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Amari Allen
3.1%
Polymarket 6.8%(4.4% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amari Allen
Last price
6.8%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
13.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$752 (7.52x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amari Allen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Motiejus Krivas
2.9%
Polymarket 5.7%(3.7% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Motiejus Krivas
Last price
5.7%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Motiejus Krivas
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Brandon McCoy
2.4%
Polymarket 6.1%(4% fair)polled, 26 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 26 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon McCoy
Last price
6.1%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon McCoy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 26 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 26 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves all listed players to No (and Other to Yes) if the draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by July 8, 2027 11:59 PM ET; Kalshi rules give no such fallback or deadline text.
  • Polymarket names official NBA information (live broadcast) as primary source, with credible reporting as an alternative; Kalshi rules name no explicit source and refer to 'Pro Basketball Draft' / 'Governing League'.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome for unlisted players; Kalshi lists only the 15 players, with no Other outcome listed.
  • Kalshi rules do not specify handling of draft cancellation or postponement, so the treatment of a cancelled or delayed draft may differ from Polymarket's.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 9, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves all listed players to No (and Other to Yes) if the draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by July 8, 2027 11:59 PM ET; Kalshi rules give no such fallback or deadline text.
  • Polymarket names official NBA information (live broadcast) as primary source, with credible reporting as an alternative; Kalshi rules name no explicit source and refer to 'Pro Basketball Draft' / 'Governing League'.
  • Polymarket has an 'Other' outcome for unlisted players; Kalshi lists only the 15 players, with no Other outcome listed.
  • Kalshi rules do not specify handling of draft cancellation or postponement, so the treatment of a cancelled or delayed draft may differ from Polymarket's.
  • Trading closes Jul 9, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tyran Stokes
  • Caleb Holt
  • Thomas Haugh

Live prices for Tyran Stokes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2027 NBA Draft: 1st Overall Pick". Tyran Stokes leads at 35.6%. Next is Caleb Holt at 7.4%. $11K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 9, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the player selected with the first overall pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. If the player selected is not a listed player, the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes". If the 2027 NBA Draft is cancelled, or the first overall selection is not definitively known by July 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each listed player's market will resolve to "No" and the "Other" market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, including the live broadcast of the 2027 NBA Draft; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets