Market comparison

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?

2 venues · 41 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

28 outcomes · $414K reported volume

Observed 31s ago

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $29K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Above 3.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 3.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 96.0% Above 5.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0% Above 5.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Above 6.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 14.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 14.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 16.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 16.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 16.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 92.0% Above 16.6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 17.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 86.0% Above 17.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0% Above 18.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	66.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0% Above 18.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Above 18.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 27.0% Above 18.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Above 19.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 11.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Above 19.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Above 19.3% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 16.0% Above 19.6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Above 19.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 19.9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 20.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Above 20.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 20.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 20.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 21.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 21.2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 21.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 21.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
AI lab F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
AI lab G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Anthropic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	—
DeepSeek Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	—
Google Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 44.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meta Open Polymarket ↗	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗	—
OpenAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 62.0% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Qwen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Qwen Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗	—
xAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% xAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Z.ai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	—

Above 3.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 3.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 96.0%

Above 5.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0%

Above 5.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 6.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Above 6.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 14.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 14.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 16.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 16.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 16.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 92.0%

Above 16.6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 17.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 86.0%

Above 17.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0%

Above 18.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0%

Above 18.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Above 18.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 27.0%

Above 18.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

Above 19.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

11.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above 19.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Above 19.3%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 16.0%

Above 19.6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Above 19.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

Above 19.9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 20.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above 20.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 20.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 20.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 21.2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 21.2%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 21.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 21.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

AI lab F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

AI lab G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Anthropic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

DeepSeek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Google

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 44.0%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

OpenAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 62.0%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Qwen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid — · Ask 1.0%

Qwen

Open Polymarket ↗

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

Z.ai

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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