The Prediction Markets

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$443K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.7% 99%

Next is Above 4.1% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.7%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.7%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 20s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 29 more outcomes
Above 16.6%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.6%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.7%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.7%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.4%
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.4%
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.1%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.1%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.0%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.0%
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 18.4%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.4%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Google
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 18.7%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.7%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.0%
22%
Kalshi 29%polled, 20s agoKalshi 11%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.3%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.3%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.6%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.6%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.8%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.8%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.1%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.1%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20.1%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.1%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.9%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.2%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.2%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 21.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 21.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Qwen
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qwen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: openrouter.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: OpenRouter - AI Market Share

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.7%
  • Above 4.1%
  • Above 4.4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.7% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?". Above 3.7% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.1% at 99%. $443K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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