Market comparison

333: Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $80K reported volume

Observed 27s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for 333: Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Colby Thicknesse Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Colby Thicknesse Open Kalshi ↗	16.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0% Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Asaf Chopurov Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	84.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0% Asaf Chopurov Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Chopurov in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 50.0% Chopurov in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chopurov in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 50.0% Chopurov in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chopurov in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 50.0% Chopurov in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 48.0% Chopurov to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 50.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 50.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 50.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 49.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 89.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 62.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 45.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Thicknesse in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Thicknesse in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Thicknesse in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 48.0% Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Colby Thicknesse

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Colby Thicknesse

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0%

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Asaf Chopurov

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Asaf Chopurov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Chopurov in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 50.0%

Chopurov in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Chopurov in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 50.0%

Chopurov in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Chopurov in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 50.0%

Chopurov in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 48.0%

Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 50.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 36.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 50.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

41.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 50.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 49.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

69.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 89.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

56.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 62.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

44.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 45.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Thicknesse in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Thicknesse in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Thicknesse in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 48.0%

Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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