The Prediction Markets

333: Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

Starts in 40 hKickoff
Traded
$71K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Asaf Chopurov 83%

Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 69%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Asaf Chopurov
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Asaf Chopurov
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Chopurov in Round 1
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov in Round 1
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopurov in Round 2
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov in Round 2
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Chopurov in Round 3
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chopurov in Round 3
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thicknesse to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Colby Thicknesse
17.9%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 18%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colby Thicknesse
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Asaf Chopurov
  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Asaf Chopurov for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "333: Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov". Asaf Chopurov leads at 83%. Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 69%. $71K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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