Market comparison

333: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $212K reported volume

Observed 54s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

27 outcomes · $207K reported volume

Observed 54s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for 333: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Merab Dvalishvili Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0% Merab Dvalishvili Open Kalshi ↗	41.5% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 72.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dvalishvili in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Dvalishvili in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dvalishvili in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Dvalishvili in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dvalishvili in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Dvalishvili in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dvalishvili in Round 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Dvalishvili in Round 4 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dvalishvili in Round 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Dvalishvili in Round 5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 47.0% Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 4? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0% Ends before Round 4? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 5? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0% Ends before Round 5? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.5% Bid 68.0% · Ask 71.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 76.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 30.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 25.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	92.5% Bid 88.0% · Ask 97.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 96.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	73.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 92.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 3.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 86.0% O/U 3.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 4.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0% O/U 4.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Petr Yan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0% Petr Yan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Yan in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Yan in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yan in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Yan in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yan in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Yan in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yan in Round 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Yan in Round 4 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yan in Round 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Yan in Round 5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yan to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% Yan to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Merab Dvalishvili

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0%

Merab Dvalishvili

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

41.5%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

62.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 72.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Dvalishvili in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Dvalishvili in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Dvalishvili in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Dvalishvili in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Dvalishvili in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Dvalishvili in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Dvalishvili in Round 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Dvalishvili in Round 4

Open Polymarket ↗

Dvalishvili in Round 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Dvalishvili in Round 5

Open Polymarket ↗

Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 47.0%

Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 4?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0%

Ends before Round 4?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 5?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0%

Ends before Round 5?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

69.5%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 71.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 76.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 30.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 25.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

92.5%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 97.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

90.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 96.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

73.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 92.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 3.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

68.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 86.0%

O/U 3.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 4.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0%

O/U 4.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Petr Yan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0%

Petr Yan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yan in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Yan in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Yan in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Yan in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Yan in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Yan in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Yan in Round 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Yan in Round 4

Open Polymarket ↗

Yan in Round 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Yan in Round 5

Open Polymarket ↗

Yan to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

Yan to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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