The Prediction Markets

333: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

Starts in 28 hKickoff
Traded
$497K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 94.5%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 91.5%. The venues differ most on Merab Dvalishvili (Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 29 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
94.5%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 4.5 Rounds
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 4.5 Rounds
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 3.5 Rounds
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Petr Yan
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Petr Yan
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Kalshi
Merab Dvalishvili
42%
Polymarket 41.5%live, 40s agoKalshi 43%live, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Price
41.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$238K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili
Price
43%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

Show 18 more outcomes
Yan in Round 2
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 2
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 5
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 5
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 5?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 5?
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan to win by KO/TKO?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 4?
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 4?
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 1
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 1
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 4
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 4
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 1
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 1
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 5
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 5
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 2
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 2
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 3
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 3
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 4
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 4
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "333: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 94.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 91.5%. $497K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets