Market comparison
AFC Championship Winner
2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 16 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗16 outcomes · $12.7M reported volume
Observed 22s ago
Recorded venue end date: Feb 22, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗17 outcomes · $3.9M reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Apr 1, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
- Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
- Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Buffalo Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Cincinnati Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
Cleveland Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.1 pp | ||
Denver Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Houston Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.3 pp | ||
Indianapolis Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.1 pp | ||
Jacksonville Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Kansas City Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp | ||
Las Vegas Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Los Angeles C Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Miami Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
New England Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
New York J Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
Pittsburgh Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.0 pp | ||
Tennessee Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp |
Baltimore
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Buffalo
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Cincinnati
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Cleveland
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.1 pp
Denver
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
Houston
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.3 pp
Indianapolis
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
Jacksonville
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Kansas City
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Las Vegas
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
Los Angeles C
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Miami
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
New England
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
New York J
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.7 pp
Pittsburgh
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.0 pp
Tennessee
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.