Market comparison

Alaska Senate margin of victory

2 venues · 25 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $71K reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jun 2, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Alaska Senate margin of victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Dan Sullivan, ≥12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Dan Sullivan, ≥12% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Sullivan, 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.0% Dan Sullivan, 0-3% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Sullivan, 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 9.0% Dan Sullivan, 3-6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Sullivan, 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Dan Sullivan, 6-9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Sullivan, 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Dan Sullivan, 9-12% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, ≥12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Mary Peltola, ≥12% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0% Mary Peltola, 0-3% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	67.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 67.0% Mary Peltola, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0% Mary Peltola, 3-6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	51.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 51.0% Mary Peltola, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0% Mary Peltola, 6-9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 35.0% Mary Peltola, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0% Mary Peltola, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Mary Peltola, 9-12% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mary Peltola, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.2% Bid 1.4% · Ask 11.0% Mary Peltola, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peltola 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 24.0% Peltola 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peltola 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 24.0% Peltola 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peltola 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 25.0% Peltola 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peltola 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 15.0% Peltola 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peltola 12+% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.8% Peltola 12+% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sullivan 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 50.0% Sullivan 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sullivan 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 16.0% Sullivan 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sullivan 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.7% Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.6% Sullivan 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sullivan 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.9% Sullivan 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sullivan 12+% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.5% Sullivan 12+% Open Polymarket ↗	—

Dan Sullivan, ≥12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Dan Sullivan, ≥12%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Sullivan, 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.0%

Dan Sullivan, 0-3%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Sullivan, 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 9.0%

Dan Sullivan, 3-6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Sullivan, 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Dan Sullivan, 6-9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Sullivan, 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Dan Sullivan, 9-12%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, ≥12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Mary Peltola, ≥12%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0%

Mary Peltola, 0-3%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 2+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 67.0%

Mary Peltola, 2+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0%

Mary Peltola, 3-6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 51.0%

Mary Peltola, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0%

Mary Peltola, 6-9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 35.0%

Mary Peltola, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0%

Mary Peltola, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

Mary Peltola, 9-12%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mary Peltola, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.2%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 11.0%

Mary Peltola, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Peltola 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 24.0%

Peltola 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Peltola 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 24.0%

Peltola 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Peltola 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 25.0%

Peltola 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Peltola 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 15.0%

Peltola 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Peltola 12+%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.8%

Peltola 12+%

Open Polymarket ↗

Sullivan 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 50.0%

Sullivan 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Sullivan 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 16.0%

Sullivan 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Sullivan 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.6%

Sullivan 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Sullivan 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.9%

Sullivan 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Sullivan 12+%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.5%

Sullivan 12+%

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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